@thsottiaux · OpenAI Codex & ChatGPT · 公开推文 704 条 / 61 天 · 全部时间为北京时间
未来 24 小时出现全局重置的概率
上次重置
最可能的重置时点
近 6 次平均间隔
样本内重置次数
以「距离上次重置过去多少天」为状态的离散风险模型（日粒度），再用历史小时分布摊到 24 小时曲线上； 检测到未兑现的前瞻承诺（“by EOD”“明天”等）时整体前移。回测 — 天： 对数损失 —，基准 —，技巧分 —。
截至当日结束至少发生一次重置的概率 · 峰值日直接标注
| 日期 | 累计概率 |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | 5% |
| 2026-10-21 | 15% |
| 2026-10-22 | 22% |
| 2026-10-23 | 20% |
| 2026-10-24 | 12% |
| 2026-10-25 | 7% |
| 2026-10-26 | 4% |
| 2026-10-27 | 4% |
| 2026-10-28 | 3% |
| 2026-10-29 | 2% |
| 2026-10-30 | 1% |
按北京时间切分 · 轴下绿点 = 当日有全局重置 · 点击图例可隐藏对应系列
| 日期 | 原创 | 回复 | 获赞 | 重置 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 4 | 9 | 47,884 | 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | 2 | 5 | 30,380 | 0 |
| 2026-10-13 | 3 | 11 | 56,478 | 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | 1 | 3 | 17,595 | 0 |
| 2026-10-15 | 3 | 7 | 48,626 | 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | 2 | 4 | 21,524 | 0 |
| 2026-10-17 | 2 | 12 | 28,219 | 0 |
| 2026-10-18 | 4 | 11 | 39,539 | 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | 5 | 8 | 47,217 | 0 |
| 2026-10-20 | 2 | 1 | 7,878 | 1 |
去掉链接、@ 与停用词后的词频 · 提升 = 7 天窗口相对前 28 天基线的对数提升
| 词 | 7 天 | 前 28 天 | 提升 (bit) | 出处 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| disk | 3 | 0 | +2.8 | Day 9/ We've rolled out optimizations to how we store state on disk for the chatgpt & codex desktop app that ↗ |
| personal | 3 | 0 | +2.8 | My work dot "Burger" coordinated with my personal dot "Dorito" over email at my personal dots request to get d↗ |
| openai | 3 | 1 | +2.5 | @rl_env Quick to jump to conclusion. This is my OpenAI work dot coordinating with my personal dot. Two entirel↗ |
| personal dot · 短语 | 2 | 0 | +2.3 | My work dot "Burger" coordinated with my personal dot "Dorito" over email at my personal dots request to get d↗ |
| cooking | 3 | 2 | +2.2 | Either we are out of ideas or we are cooking. Time will tell↗ |
| enjoy | 3 | 3 | +2.0 | And update your app to enjoy this gem https://t.co/oMWhw3ETZ6↗ |
| pro | 4 | 18 | +0.7 | We also significantly improved GPT-6 Pro for all pro users https://t.co/XE28U4S359↗ |
| reset | 4 | 19 | +0.6 | The reports of my reset button being lost are greatly exaggerated Day 10/ Reset↗ |
| users | 3 | 16 | +0.5 | Day 9/ We've rolled out optimizations to how we store state on disk for the chatgpt & codex desktop app that ↗ |
| dot | 5 | 30 | +0.3 | My work dot "Burger" coordinated with my personal dot "Dorito" over email at my personal dots request to get d↗ |
关键词规则归类 · 一条帖子可同时命中多个话题
| 话题簇 | 帖子 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|
| Ship-or-reset series | 47 | 28% |
| Models | 29 | 17% |
| Plans / pricing | 28 | 17% |
| Reset / quota | 24 | 14% |
| Codex / dev tooling | 22 | 13% |
| Growth / milestones | 11 | 7% |
| Reliability / incidents | 2 | 1% |
每 7 天窗口内出现该词的帖子数 · 看 “reset / banked / EOD” 这类词何时抬升
| 窗口 | reset | banked | eod | usage | vote | day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 最近7天 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 26 |
| 7天前 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 9 |
| 14天前 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 21天前 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 8 |
| 28天前 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
重置日里带 reset 语义的帖子，按时间倒序 · 北京时间
他回复过或正文里 @ 过的人
| 账号 | 被回复 | 被提及 |
|---|---|---|
| @theo | 6 | 9 |
| @poteto | 3 | 5 |
| @ajambrosino | 3 | 5 |
| @charliermarsh | 2 | 2 |
| @argofowl | 2 | 2 |
| @_simonsmith | 2 | 2 |
| @steipete | 2 | 2 |
| @StefanoGPT | 2 | 2 |
| @amorriscode | 1 | 2 |
| @jkeatn | 1 | 1 |
| @charlierguo | 1 | 1 |
| @koltregaskes | 1 | 1 |